Jiangsu Province Exports Function Empirical Research

Based on the analysis of Jiangsu province's export developing conditions and its' relevant factors, this paper puts forward the general theory suppositions and the theory models of Jiangsu province's export. Then it does the empirical analysis on the export function by using the econometric methods such as co-integration and vector auto regression. The empirical analysis results show that there are long term co-integration relations among the export, gross domestic production (GDP), import (IM), investment in research and development (R&D) and foreign direct investment (FDI) of Jiangsu province. The determinants of Jiangsu province's export are the following main factors including GDP, IM, and R&D. The FDI has promoted the developing of export, while the influence is weak. The real efficient exchange rate of RMB, the world economic growth rate, and the world export price index have no clear relations with the export. To this phenomenon, this paper gives some reasonable economic explanations. By using the export model constructed in this paper, the export volumes of the future two years are predicted. According to the prediction, Jiangsu province's export will grow at the rate of about 50%. Finally this paper raises some basic policy proposals for inducing higher and healthier exports.