China's Futures Markets, The Effectiveness Of Empirical Analysis

The development of economy needs efficient and normative capital markets, many scholars have made some research about the availabihty of stock market, either of which is much earlier. Our Futures Market has been regulated recently, and to analyze the availability of Future Market is of great realistic significance. For the one hand, it can provide politic evidence to superior management, for the other hand, it can make the participants have an awareness. According to the Theory of Efficient Market, Robots, American economist, expounded three layers of Efficient Market, Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis, Semi-strong Efficient Market Hypothesis and Strong Efficient Market Hypothesis. Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis is the lowest layer, and it supposes that the present price reflects historical message, and the participants can not acquire surplus benefit by analyzing historical price. The way of checking the Availability of Future Market is the Theory of Random Walk, if the present price is in coincidence with the theory, such a conclusion can be reached that the market is efficient. While study financial data, what people take care of is the earning rate, to calculate which the Geometry average should be used. For convenience, we use Xt, which is logarithm benefit rate. Through Unit Root test, we find that the distribution is regulative. So we can use the way of serial Correlation Test.The conclusion is that Chinese Futures Market is not efficient. That is to say, historical price has effect on president, the investors can decide by technical analysis. Because our Futures Market is not satisfied with Weak-form Efficient Market Hypothesis, consequently, it does not satisfy Semi-strong Efficient Market Hypothesis. But the paper introduces it systemically. After the development of a few years, we have achieved some achievements, the paper analyzes the stage features. However, the conclusion proves the fact that there still are functional defects. In view of this, the paper expounds countermeasures, and the Futures Market can beimproved step by step, thereby is efficient and play an important role in capital markets.