A Study On The Popularization Of Population 's Inertial Measurement And Its Simulation Study On Population Development In

Negative population growth will inevitably lead to the inertia of China’s aging population and low birth rate, and other structural problems have become more serious. Firstly, a population-based formula inertia discrete Preston (1997) proposed population inertial measurement method is generalized, that is, the set of data-five years into a precise set of data, make predictions more accurate. Second, select the study as Xinjiang province, starting from specific data, inertial measurement methods were applied population and promotion of the original method after calculating the respective population in Xinjiang inertia factor, and a comparative analysis. Finally, the current development of Xinjiang’s population, using different programs to simulate the Six P from development of Xinjiang’s population of this century, measuring the effect of population momentum Xinjiang’s population reached its peak years of this century and the role of population momentum. The main conclusions are as follows:First, while the fifth, sixth census data show that Xinjiang region and sub-urban and rural populations inertia factor greater than 1, that is, their populations are in a phase of positive growth inertia. But this decade, the population is growing inertia in decline, and the decline of the rural population than urban.Second, the total fertility rate to replacement level increase year earlier, the total population of Xinjiang peak of the later years, the population reached a peak higher after the slower rate of population decline. Different simulated scenarios show:Suppose the total fertility rate was maintained at 1.53 (below replacement level) and remains unchanged, the total population of the region of Xinjiang in the next 30 years will continue to grow, but the rapid decline after the 2040 peak; hypothesis sum fertility further improve after 2030 to the replacement level and remains unchanged, the total population of the region of Xinjiang peak year postponed to 2049, then slowly reduce and then stabilize; assume that the total fertility rate in 2030 increased to linear replacement level and remains unchanged, the peak year of the Xinjiang region’s total population in 2054, then slowly reduce and then stabilize.Third, compared to Xinjiang towns and villages of the population inertia, can be found:different simulation programs, the urban population reached its peak years earlier than the rural population inertia factor is larger than the decrease is also rural, and after the peak, the urban population the total rate of decline faster than the countryside, towns affected population inertia Xinjiang region is also larger than the countryside. The proportion of rural population in each age group are minor changes, changes in the proportion of urban population in each age group it is obvious. Increase the total fertility rate, the proportion of urban population is approximately the same group of children, but has been lower than rural; urban proportion of the adult population will decline sharply in 2030 dropped to below the village, but in 2060 will appear after a certain recovery; urban proportion of elderly population will rise sharply, then leveled off, but has been higher than the countryside.