The Development Of The Regional Population Forecast And Evaluation Of Modern Study

Population is the most key element of the society and various kinds of activity, population development state is influencing each field of the human activity. Conversely, various kinds of societies, economic, natural factors are playing greater influence function on population's development and change too. So, the population issue is the basis and starting point of a country or region make development goal.The study of population issue, must analyse the population development forecast, based on population forecast, propose population development goal - population modemization.The urgent task is to set up a reference population modernization index system. Therefore, population forecast and modernization evaluation become very important research subject at present.Regarding regional population as the research object, the main job of this article includes:Firstly, based on the predict model of population development set up by Song Jian,analyze the mode of bearing, the relative death rate of age and the woman proportion,With such parameter disturbance impacts on population development system. and lists the development indexes.Secondly, establish the system of modernization index of population,regard average level which developed country develop as the modernized level of population ,and combine AHP method on the basis of questionnaire investigation ,carry on the weight to set up to every index.Finally, regard the development of people of Dalian as instance,developed the systems soft ware, have predicted the population of 2001 - 2020 years,estimate out the modernization degree of Dalian,analysed to the result ,and put forward science reasonable policy recommendations.The thesis'job shows: population modernization index system set up and calculate method have feasibility and practicability.