Education Talent Forecast And Analysis

The first talent's working conference was held in Beijing on December, 19 –20, 2003, which promoted the talent of our country to a new strategic height. Sichuan is one of the provinces that early proposed the strategies of "prospering province with science and education" and "talent sustainable development". The talent problem of Sichuan has been paying more attention after the Development of the West Regions carried out. In 2003, the education department of Sichuan Province initiated the soft key subject of scientific research: The study of talent's demand and supply under WTO background. This dissertation is finished just under the background of the fact like this and relying on the vertical subject. The dissertation is basically based on the Statistical Yearbooks of Sichuan, Statistical Yearbooks of Chinese Population, the Manpower Planning of Sichuan, and the Fourth and the Fifth time Population Census data of Sichuan. The characteristic and deficiency of the talents in Sichuan are analyzed and appraised based on the historical data. The model of Area compound coordinate degree is used to estimate the developing coordination degree of the economy and talent systems in Sichuan. And the contradictions between the economy and talent systems are ocularly announce with digitized results. The grey model, linear regression model, Markov's model, and combination forecast, etc, are employed in order to scientifically predict the talent's demand and supply situations on the total amount, education-accepted level, and industrial structure in Sichuan from 2005 to 2010. Then the reason that the insufficiency of supply-demand produced is analyzed. Then the talents'quality is predicted, and the conclusion that it exist two different stages-"qualitative change" and "quantitative change"-when achieving the goal of raising labor productivity relies on the increasing manpower capital stock alone is drawn. And the different industry will be at the different stage in the different period. In the end, the cultivation and development strategies of talents are put forward in hope that it can provide some references for talents' training and tapping decisions of Sichuan in the future.