The Formation Mechanism Of Coal Price In China And Its Empirical Study

This dissertation elaborated the Chinese domestic coal price mechanism from several angles (supply, demand, transport, inventory, international alternative-energy and so on). Besides, the concept of the existence of regional coal market and its price mechanism are put forward in the article. In order to prove it, VAR model is used to analyze and compare the influence of above factors on consumption place, transit point and origin coal price respectively via impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.According to the empirical results of Qinghuangdao thermal coal price which is a core index of national coal price, the contribution rate of demand to domestic coal price fluctuation is absolute; it has stabilized at 59% in long term. Additionally, the following factors are coal product cost, coal output, international coal price and inventory, whose contribution rate in short, medium and long term reached 6% to 7% respectively. Comparatively, the effect of coal shipping price and power plant coal inventory are less, staying under 2%.The existence of regional coal market is proved by the model analysis results, details are as follows:1) from the impact of output and demand (economic growth) on coal price and contribution rate, Qinghuangdao thermal coal price (transit point) ranked first, the second factor is Guangzhou port (consumption place) which is followed by Datong coal price (production place).2) from the international coal price aspect, the influence of Qinghuangdao thermal coal price and Guangzhou port is more than Datong coal price.3) from the point of coal mining cost, Datong coal price has more impact than that of Qinghuangdao and Guangzhou.4) for power plant inventory impacting on coal price, coal price of Qinghuangdao influence more than that of Guangzhou in short term.This dissertation’s aim is to give several policy recommendations. Government should increase the coal and environment taxes and take appropriate demand measures to optimize domestic resources structure,which enterprise should increase profit by improve internal management efficiency and pay more attention on aboard mineral resources.