A Probe Into The Development Trend Of China 's Export Under The Background Of Medium Income Trap

Since China’s reform and opening up, China’s export trade has made important breakthroughs, with the increase of export trade economic development has been rapid growth. Export trade was $14.6 billion in 1981, GDP is $194.4 billion, exports as a share of GDP is 7.5%, and in 2014, China’s export trade is $2.342 trillion, GDP is $10.3548 trillion, export trade as a share of GDP is 22.6%. Present the dependence on the international market to China’s economic growth is very big, but there is a downturn in the export trade growth in nearly three years so the analysis of the development trend of China’s export trade to ensure economic growth, stable employment and the whole national economy healthy and stable is of great significance.At the same time, this period is the key to our country towards a higher income level, China wants to cross the middle-income trap, also faces many problems. Most middle-income trap national economic growth fell back or stagnation, the phenomenon such as the gap between rich and poor and employment difficulties. So in order to make our country get rid of the "middle-income trap" as soon as possible and make our country enter the high income countries, export trade research is particularly important. In this paper, under the background of middle-income trap, export trade development trends were discussed.In economies across the "middle-income trap" case, "Asian tigers" and Japan is a model of success, but if from a more macro perspective on this question, completed the transition from low to high income countries with only two, Japan and South Korea. So the China, Japan and South Korea under the different stages of income difference of export trade, and draw lessons from the successful experience of Japan and South Korea. For our country succeeded in crossing the "middle-income trap" period and has obvious advantages in competition in the future free trade zone plays an important role.In conclusion, this article will use description analysis method to analyze the current situation of domestic and foreign export trade in our country, at the same time, comparing the export trade of China and South Korea to study in Japan and South Korea in the two countries successfully across the "middle-income trap" into a period of high income levels and economic adjustment method is adopted by the policy change, as well as to the export trade and GNI per capita income level index for quantitative analysis. At the same time using ARMA model for the future of our country export trade do short-term prediction and research the influencing factors of export trade. In crossing the "middle-income trap" period, the brief analysis of development trend of export trade.