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The Middle-Income Trap From The Viewpoint Of Trade Structure

Posted on:2019-02-17Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S F HuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2359330545977479Subject:International Trade
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Since 2010,China has officially entered the ranks of upper middle-income countries,and its economic development is facing new challenges.In the following 1 years,the GDP growth rate fell below 10%for the first time,and the growth rate was between 6.7%and 6.9%in 2015-2017.Does the slowdown in China’s economic growth mean that China is facing the threat of a middle-income trap?Or is it normal convergence in the process of economic growth?Therefore,the middle-income trap is a hot issue in the current economic research.However,many of the existing literature are based on income distribution,technology,and population.There is not much research which directly linking the trade structure with the middle-income trap.This article mainly studies the internal mechanism that leads to the middle income trap from the viewpoint of trade structure.The reason that the middle-income trap was caused by the irrational industrial structure and unable to upgrade the industrial structure in a timely manner.If this view holds.Since the industrial structure can determine the trade structure,or the changes in the trade structure can reflect the state of the industrial s upgrading.Since the net export ratio is an ideal measure of trade structure to a certain degree,the net export ratio of the four types of products will be constructed to measure the trade structure.By comparing the differences in the evolution of the trade structure between the traps and the non-traps,we analyze the possible different industrial structure upgrade paths and conclude the possible mechanism of the middle-income trap.By building relevant standards for middle income and traps,and using 216 countries’GDP per capita data for the past 56 years,the measurement results show that Latin America and Africa have the highest probability of falling into traps during the middle income period.And to divide the country into traps and non-traps.By comparing the evolution of the trade structures,it is shown that the possible reason for falling into the middle-income trap is that the path of industrial upgrading is too narrow.The trade structure cannot transit from low-complexity products to high-complexity products,and the industrial structure cannot be optimized.The extended flying-geese model advocates that exports should gradually transition from low complexity to high complexity,or that the net export of products from consumer goods to capital goods.The upstream industry can be driven by the forward linkage of the industry.This paper believes that countries and regions industrial upgrading following the geese-flying model are less likely to be trapped.Under the framework of the geese pattern,we can better analyze the mechanism of middle-income traps and provide experiences for some countries.In addition,based on empirical conclusions,the analysis of the status quo of China’s trade structure is,on the surface,consistent with the non-trapped group,and it seems that there is no risk of falling into a trap.However,considering that the processing trade ratio in China is still relatively large,so we should not only focused on the complexity of the export of products but also the value-added of the products.The results show that China’s share of value added in the capital goods industry,especially some high-tech industries,is still relatively low,and international competitiveness is not strong,and there is still a risk of falling into a trap.Based on the analysis results,provide five suggestions at last.
Keywords/Search Tags:Middle-income Trap, Trade Structure, Flying-geese model, Net Export Ratio, Industrial Upgrading
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