The Mechanism Of "middle Income Trap"

The world bank in 2006,the east Asia economic development report for the first time put forward and expounded the concept of "middle-income trap",it will introduce a "middle-income trap" development economics analysis,refers to a country in the middle-income stage due to the economic,political,social,strategy,policy and other factors make it a long-term stagnation in the face of the equilibrium level of development.,senior economist at the world bank's east Asia and the Pacific region,Milan Bart's view,the concept of "middle-income trap" means from low-income countries growth strategy for middle-income countries,to high income is not enough for them."Middle-income trap" often companys by economic growth falls or stagnation,domestic industrial structure is unreasonable,the phenomenon such as the gap between rich and poor is serious."Middle-income trap" is a developing country or an inevitable stage of economic development in some regions,but also because of the international environment,the specific conditions of different countries,different development policies are different,ways to get out of the "middle-income trap",has a different way and time.Therefore,the transformation of the mode of economic growth,to realize the economic sustainable development,is the stagnation of wandering out of the "trap" a necessary premise.So the "middle-income trap" is essentially a growth problem.The reasonable industrial structure change is the necessary foundation of steady economic growth,but also the inevitable conditions for sustained economic growth.A country's industrial structure optimization is dependent on the international factors,and international trade is the international factors "channel" of domestic industrial structure optimization.Industrial structure and trade structure is often seen as "like" and "mirror" relationship.Based on this,this article aims at from the perspective of the trade structure,the "middle-income trap",and find out the reason of this phenomenon may be caused by the empirical analysis with the "middle-income trap" country "middle-income trap" of the country's four different types of export products net export proportion relationship with the income level,compare the difference and analyze the reasons,the "middle-income trap" state and the reasonable explanation trap national trade structure differences.This paper first this expounded the "middle-income trap" concept and to identify the "middle-income trap" and traps.Then analyzed the typical "middle-incometrap" countries and fall into the possible causes of the "trap".Then to trap nations and trap net export proportion of different products,points out the differences of export commodity structure,for the subsequent empirical analysis.Finally,through the benchmarking analysis and fixed effects regression analysis to study the non-trapped state and change products were exported to different countries and the relationship between the national income levels.In theoretical analysis,the present situation description,on the basis of empirical research,this paper get the conclusion: for the trap national industrial upgrading process seems to be consistent with the flying geese.So can conclude,through the consumer goods and capital goods,the industrial upgrading of components to link between more successful than trap state.For middle-income trap national,the more dependent on exports of primary products,industrialization is driven by the finished product prior to connection.The weak industrial base is a possible factor to the middle-income trap.The middle-income trap national industrial upgrading more successful than middle-income trap countries,and to reflect on its export commodity structure.Research to help "middle-income trap" national policy advice and help these countries actually walked out of the "middle-income trap".