Study On The Asymmetric Effect Of Interest Rate Adjustment On Housing Price

Interest rate policy, as one of the means of government’s macro-regulation, is widely used. According to the interest rate to analyze the influence of the real estate market supply and demand can be found that higher interest rates can limit the rise in house prices in the current housing prices continue to rise, study the influence of interest rate on the real estate price mechanism and the actual effect is of important theoretical and realistic significance.In this paper, on the basis of relevant research results at home and abroad for reference, this paper combined with the regulatory mechanism of interest rate, the operation rules of the real estate market as well as the theoretical basis for the asymmetric effects of monetary policy, respectively analyzes the interest rate on the real estate supply and demand and the impact of interest rate adjustment process of action have asymmetric effect on prices, theoretical analysis found that the reverse changes of interest rate adjustment will cause price, and the influence of interest rate adjustment on housing prices is asymmetry, show the interest rate effect will be better than the effect of higher interest rates. Then, using the econometric H-P filter, vector autoregressive(VAR) model and impulse response function and variance decomposition, by choosing 1 year benchmark lending rate, benchmark lending rate 1 to 3 years, 5 years above the benchmark lending interest rate and commercial housing sales price index, the empirical analysis of the interest rate adjustment on housing prices in Shanghai asymmetric effect.Through empirical analysis can draw the following conclusions:(1) in the short term, the negative impact to the interest rate impact on housing prices in positive and negative to the volatility, but in the long term, rate of positive and negative impact to all can cause the reverse change of housing prices, interest rate policy regulation of housing prices is effective;(2) the influence degree of the interest rate policy on house prices there are asymmetric effect, impact of negative interest rate impact effect is stronger than the positive rates. In addition, our prices of each term interest rates are found that the influence of the interest rate policy, during the period of 1 year benchmark lending rate effects on the housing prices were slightly better than 1 to 3 years and 5 years of benchmark lending rate, and in the interest rates on house prices, the effect of various interest rate index was flat, the effect of basic no difference. Finally, the empirical conclusions from into one Step to perfect the real estate market information disclosure system, reasonable guide public expectations; Further promote market-oriented interest rate reform, improve the interest rate transmission channels; Scientific interest rate policy, give play to the role of policy three aspects put forward pertinence suggestion.