An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Land Supply On Commercial Housing Prices In Shanghai

Since 1998, the reform of housing market has greatly improved civil living conditions,especially the commodity housing market, making it the support of national economy, which also has played an indispensable role in economic increase of our country. Land supply, as the premise and base of the real estate market development, is also the basic production factor of commercial housing development. Due to the particularity of the land supply system of our country,National Macro-control Policies on Land is one of the most powerful means to regulate the real estate market.In recent years, our country has issued a series of macro-control policies on land to stem over high price of commercial housing. However, the price of these prime sites have been refreshed, together with the price of the common commercial houses. As a result, people are doubting whether land supply has any effect on controlling housing prices. Meanwhile, the relation between land supply and commodity housing prices has been the focus of most concern and interest of scholars’ researches. Thus, such questions will be raised as how does land supply affect prices of commodity housing? Is there a cause and effect?Are there any differences on housing prices between the districts and counties of different level of economy in different locations even though they are in the same city. The writer, making a case study of Shanghai, studies the impact of land supply on commodity housing prices.In the paper, the writer firstly introduces the concepts of land supply and commodity housing prices, makes a review of the related economic theories and sorts out the present development of commodity housing market and evolution of macro-control polices on land. Then, the impact of land supply on commodity housing prices has been studied through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. As to the theories, the writer explains the relationship between land supply and commodity housing prices in different aspects. As tothe empirical analysis, the writer analyzes the supply of land and price of land in Shanghai by modeling VAR and examining Pearson correlations. Based on the panel data of 17 districts in Shanghai, cluster analysis method was used to investigate their regional differences. Last but not least, the writer makes the conclusion of the whole research.The findings are as follows: land supply has significantly negative impact on the commodity housing prices; there are obvious differences of housing prices of different districts and counties; there is a time lag of the impact of land supply on commodity housing prices. Hopefully, the research may make some contributions to the studies in this field.