Process Of Trade Liberalization, Agricultural Trade Development Potential In China And The Eu Study

As the promotion of Chinese agriculture internationalization and trade liberalization after entering WTO, adding to the Chinese agricultural products market structure reform, the agricultural trade policy are developing while the inter agriculture structure are modified. The European Union is the biggest trade partner. It also begins to be one of the main agricultural trade partners of China. So how to estimate the potentialities reasonably in the process of trade liberalization between China and EU is of eminent theoretical and practical significance for expanding the agricultural trade area and scale in order to make China and EU be good complementarities and increase farmers' income.On the ground of the present research results and methods, the thesis firstly show the history changes of China and EU's agricultural trade policies, adding to analyze empirically the changes and reasons of the bilateral trade structures using Constant Market Share Model (CMS) in order to discuss the main problems between them. Secondly, according to the traditional trade theory, the thesis quantified the competition with the Revealed Comparative Advantages Index (RCA), Export Similarity Index (S~P) and Export Desperations (EN~p) and quantified the complementarities with Relative Trade Advantages Index (RTA) and Overall Bilateral Complementarities (OBC). Thirdly, according to new trade theory, the thesis discussed the agricultural trade model between China and EU with different Intra-Industry Trade Index from the statistic and dynamical points. In addition, it analyzed the factors, which effected the development of the bilateral agricultural trade empirically using Panel Data Model. At last, the thesis constructed Time Series Model based on the counties and products levels in order to presume the future trend of the bilateral agricultural trade.The results show that in the future time, China and EU agricultural trade will have good developing potentialities. However, to different EU member countries, it will have different potentialities. China will maintain the export scale of main EU countries and finding more trade partners to improve the agricultural trade complexity. At the same time, to different agricultural products, the future trends are different. According the countries list, China will possibly add the export to Austria, Spain and import from Ireland, Denmark except keeping the export and import trade with the traditional partners such as Germany, France, Netherlands,Italy and so on. According the countries list, the first kind of agricultural products (grand agricultural products), which are exported to EU from China, will decrease but the import will increase. And China will continue increasing the second kind of agricultural products (edible livestock products) that are beneficial for bilateral complementarities. The third kind of agricultural products (inedible livestock products) and the fourth kind (aquatic product) trade will be a raising trend with an obvious Intra-Industry Trade model. As the main agricultural products that are exported to EU from China, the fifth kind of agricultural products (gardening products) will keep the increasing state. The remaining two kinds of products will maintain the present trade scale between China and EU.Finally, for the above-mentioned determination, the thesis put forward the goal of further expanding the agricultural trade between China and EU from two aspects of microcosmic and macroscopic. In microcosmic, China should adjust the agricultural trade policy to different EU member countries and continue to increase the Intra-Industry Trade proportion with EU countries on the base of traditional Inter-Industry Trade in order to form good complementarities between the two trade models. In macrocosmic, China should readjust appropriately the agricultural production structure to satisfy EU countries' import needs from China. And China must construct the quality system of agricultural products to face the EU countries' technology trade barrier. Moreover, China should strengthen the horizontal divergence of export agricultural products to improve the horizontal Intra-Industry Trade for more trade interest.