The Calculation And Analysis Of The Bilateral Trade Potential Between China And Other BRICS Countries

In recent decades, accompanying the economic globalization, the trend has been showed that in order to realize the complementation in economy and promote common development, some countries begin to form economic and trade communities with their economic interests. Representing emerging economies, the "BRICS" shows a good tendency and a golden prospect. From the perspective of China, this paper explores the potential of bilateral trade and its influence factors between China and the other BRICS countries, according to their foreign trade development.Firstly, the paper quotes the classical theory of international trade to clear that the trade is based upon the comparative advantages in different products, or their factor endowment is different, or the different in the same industry product. Then the paper analyzes the bilateral trade between China and the other BRICS ones, it turns out that: Overall, the foreign trade of the "BRICS" is developing rapidly, and all four countries have become the main trading partners of China, its bilateral trade volume has increased continuously. In addition, their commodity trade structures are complementary, China's main traded commodities are some manufactured goods, and the other BRICS ones'are raw materials and energy. The paper estimates the comparative advantage index (SRCA and Lafay) and complementary index (TSC) to study their competition and complementary relationship, come to that the "BRICS" respectively have commodity types with advantage or with disadvantage, and the inter industry trade between China and Brazil is complementary, as well as Russia and South Africa; the intra industry trade between China and India is complementary. Further, the paper selects seven variables, including GDP of importing and exporting countries, space distance, the population of importing country, exporter's currency exchange rate, WTO and the BRICS, using bilateral trade in goods export data in 2005-2014 between China and the other BRICS countries, to establish the gravity model. Regression analysis showed that the GDP of exporter and importer, export country's currency exchange rate and WTO can promote their bilateral exports, but the distance will retard them. In the end. the paper estimates their goods trade potential through the gravity model, the result shows that:the export trades potential between China and Brazil. South Africa belong to "over trading", and trade with Russia. India is from "over trading" into "trade deficit"The paper offers some practical and policy suggestions to further strengthen the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism and promoting their bilateral trade in the world economic stagnation.