Cyclical Turning Point Of The Coal Industry Forecast Index System Study

Coal industry,which is the basic raw materials industry,influences theoperation of national economy directly. If the coal industry develops healthilyand continually,it will do huge contribution to the macroeconomic. In orderto develop a positive and balanced coal industry,it is very necessary to set upthe early warning system for the industry. And the monitoring on coalindustry has very important realistic meanings to government,entrepreneursand investors.In this case,the author collects the yearly economic indicators related tocoal industry, and screens the leading, coincident indicators of coal industryby the method of time difference relevance. The author chooses the fix assetsturnover, total assets turnover, net profit margin, gross profit rate and costto profit rate as the leading indicators. The coincident indicators include thegrowth rate of coal production,coal consumption,electricity,iron,concreteand glass. The essay uses the principle component analysis to explain theleading and coincident indicators. The essay also introduces the method ofdiffuse index (DI) in early warning system.Based on statistics data of these indicators,by principle componentanalysis,the demonstration has been employed to review the model and thehypothesizes of coal industry cycles. The early warning system of coalindustry has been investigated.The main creative results acquired by the essay included: in coalindustry, the observable cyclical behavior is mainly due to the cycle demandof the electricity,iron and concrete industry with the cyclical supply ofproduction. The indicators can help to predict the coal industry cycle. Themethod for constructing coal industry early warning system has beenproposed.