The Research Of Chinese Electric Power Industry’s Booming Index And Fluctuation

Electric power industry, as the basic energy industry, occupies an extremely important position in the national economy and has a close relationship with macroeconomics. Electric power industry reflects macroeconomic cycles quite sensitively, its trend of development is consistent with that of macroeconomics. Therefore, the article constructs the cyclical index of electric power industry, does research on the relationship between characteristics of the industry fluctuation and macroeconomic fluctuation.There is important practical significance on dynamic monitoring of electric power industry, prediction of its trend and effective development of industrial policy.The article collects the monthly data of the power industry from January2006to December2013. It covers six terms of growth targets, including power generation, thermal power generation, social consumption with electricity, crude steel production, added value of heavy industry and main business income of electricity production. And then uses X-11seasonal adjustment method for data processing, excluding seasonal factors and irregular factors. The article selects a consistent set of indicators of the power industry on the method of the time difference correlation analysis and uses China Economic Monitoring system to construct coincident index composited with fluctuations in the power industry and macroeconomic.Through analysis of the power industry cyclicality, macroeconomic volatility and the time difference between them, the author makes positive recommendations for the relevant departments which benefits the development of electric power industry.The article is divided into six chapters. Chapter one introduces the significance and purpose of the research and research methods. It also covers main contents of the article and achievement of domestic and foreign related research in recent years. Chapter two describes and analyzes electric power industry of China mainly on aspects of production, consumption, investment, business and related industries. Chapter three constructs China’s electric power industry sentiment index. This part is divided into two parts. The first part is theoretical foundation of analysis, and the second part focuses on selecting a consistent set of indicators of China’s power industry and constructing coincident composite index by the time series of data processing and classification. Chapter four analyzes characteristics of China’s power industry business cycles and cyclical characteristics of macroeconomic volatility, summarizing the time difference between them. Chapter five draws a conclusion that electric power industry is influenced by macroeconomic fluctuations on the basis of the preceding analysis, and then makes some positive suggestions for the development of the power industry. Chapter six is about shortcomings of this article, such as data defects and some issues which should be explored in depth.