Research On Leading Indicators System Of Macroeconomic Of Fujian

Macro-manipulation emphasizes advance and foresight. To research the leading indicators system and monitor the future movements of national economy has very important academic and practical meanings.Now scholars and institutions are producing a growing volume of research on leading indicators. The study have three characteristics, positive analysis are less than normative analysis, provincial research are less than national research, and research methods get behind. On the basis of looking up a lot of literatures, using Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition, I established the leading indicators system of Fujian province.The dissertation is organized as follows.In chapter one, we introduced the current research situation of leading indicators. In chapter two, we introduced the theoretic foundation of leading indicator method, modern theory of business cycle and business cycle analysis.In chapter three, we processed leading test for the time series using ADF test, Cointegration test and Granger causality test, and established leading indicators system for Fujian economy movements. Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition showed that most of the leading indicators lead 4 to 9 months of economy.In chapter four, we aggregated the composite leading index for Fujian province for reference of NBER methods and got several important conclusions that the leading index can be used for the short forecast of 3 to 6 months, especially for expanding turning points.In chapter five, I proposed some policy suggestions about leading indicators forecast.