China's Truck Market Analysis And Forecasting

Develop production plan according to production requirement is important to modern enterprises, including carmakers. We have set up several models to forecast the possession of domestic trucks and give reference to carmakers in this thesis. The status quo and the trend of domestic truck market were presented at first. The concept and classification of forecasting methods were introduced secondly. The forecast to the possession of domestic trucks were followed as a key part of the thesis in the last.We have combined qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to foresee the market size. Firstly, we found the relative factors influencing the truck market through qualitative analysis and picked up several main factors by quantitative analysis, such as highway mileage, social fixed assets investment capital and consumption expenditure, etc. Secondly, we set up four models by using those factors. The four models are a time series model, a multiple regression model, a factor regression model and an integrated model. This part is also the focus of the text. Lastly, we analysed of the pros and cons of various models comparative and gave each model's application as a final result.