Enterprise A Managerial & Administrative Personnel Demand Forecast Model Research

Under the guidance of the theories of Human Resource Management (HRM), this thesis made substantial analysis on the forecast of human resources demand of the enterprise A, and laid a solid foundation for the formulation of the enterprise's Human Resources Planning (HRP).Nowadays enterprises value the strategy HRM more and more, and accept HRP day by day. On this background, this thesis is mainly support for the formulation of the enterprise's eleventh-five-years-planning. The process of the research in this thesis is followed. First of all, I distinguished the concrete factors which influence the human resources demanding and its changes, and found out the predict factors on the basis of forefathers' researches. Second, I made investigation, collected data of the predict factors, and then established the forecast model of human resources demand. And finally, I made a forecast of the human resources demand for the enterprise. The research in this thesis used both quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. The quantitative analysis methods which were used in the research in this thesis include Time Series Analysis, Multivariate Analysis and Grey System Theory. The content of this thesis is followed. Firstly, proposing the questions, talking about the background and the significances of the research in this thesis. Secondly, telling about the results of other predecessor's researches, which provide a theory base to my study. Thirdly, introducing the enterprise and its human resource, especially the managers. Fourthly, establishing the forecast model of human resource demand, which include determining the forecast goal, collecting data, choosing forecast method, dealing with data, constructing the forecast model, checking and finally determining it. Finally, summarizing the result of the research, and providing the direction of the further studies.This thesis has values both in theory and practice. In theory, it enriches the HRP, fills in the blanks of the forecast of human resources demand, and makes beneficial supplements for the modern HRM. In practical, it makes it possible that the forecast model of human resources demand could be used rightly in the enterprise. With the help of this model, according to the strategy and the goal of the organization, the enterprise can be sure about the quantities and structure of its managers in the future. As a result, the enterprise will no longer introduce managers blindly, and can avoidthe problems about the unreasonable in the quantities and structure of its managers. Meanwhile, the model also can help the enterprise to find out whether the quantities and structure of its managers currently is reasonable. According to the result, the enterprise can make clear and pointed measures, and be sure that the quantities and structure of the human resources is good for the development of the enterprise.Certainly, the research of this thesis is only a preliminary attempt. There must be some deficiencies. And its results must be examined in practice, and need to go deeper in further studies.