Fuzzy Environment, Investment Decisions And Portfolio Research

From last mid-century to today, investment research has always been a hot issue, which has played a guiding role on both country and the people. Many scholars have established a lot of investment models under classical theory, but in practical applications, many data are not well exactly qualified, and therefore many classical models often only have a theoretical value and lack of practical application value. Due to the unpredictable nature of the future, investors who may make some subjective evaluations are often based on the experience and knowledge for the future cash flows, discount rate and other important data. So this thesis has introduced the fuzzy theory to the research of investment under fuzzy conditions.On the basis of the theory and knowledge of many branches such as fuzzy mathematics, optimization theory, numerical computing, financial investment science, software engineering, this thesis has made the following research based on the predecessors' outcomes:(1) For ordering fuzzy numbers, this thesis introduced A which is an index represents the investor's risk aversion, and defined a average index which can well cope with the triangular fuzzy numbers in finance risk conditions.(2) Presented an investment evaluation criteria, which would well analyzed both index of the Net Present Value and the Internal Rate of Return respectively, it used the triangular fuzzy numbers to represent the cash flows and the discount rate ensuring the integrity of the initial information, and also transformed the triangular fuzzy numbers into α -cuts, and therefore analyzed how to rank investments and how to choose a tangible investment project.(3)We has introduced the concept of budgetary constraint and selected the tangible investment portfolio, and also we improved the classic optimize modal which introduced by processor using fuzzy ways and set a extra restricted budget, and therefore constructed a fuzzy linear programming, so this model is not only theoretically feasible but also reasonable in practical application.(4) In windows98/2000/ME/NT/NP operating system platform, we used the mathematical software Matlab to set up investment decision-making system and let all the heavy calculations automation. It mainly carried out the investor's decision-making about the feasibility of the investment projects and even select the reasonable investment portfolio.