R & D Project Risk Evaluation Index System And Its Evaluation Method

R&D is the key to enterprises for surviving and developing, it is also an important means to keep the sustaining competition force of enterprises. With the development of market economy, there are more and more R&D activities in the enterprise. Although some scholars had made trial research on relative field, but the research on R&D risk evaluation is still less than market demand. Therefore R&D project risk evaluation will become research focus in the theory scope with the development of china economy.This text analyzes the present research condition of R&D project and it's problem existed first, then makes a systematic research on R&D project, the character of R&D project risk and it's goals, principles, steps; at last we make a deeper research on it's evaluating index system and evaluating method by comparison and rationed measure, and the important is we put the research conclusion into practice for involving theories disjoint from practice.During studying, a new index system of risk assessment is proposed based on the principles of existent index system. Due to the dynamic nonlinear characteristics of R&D risk assessment, its index system should be established receptively according to it's three phases. Then this text analyzes the merits and shortcomings of existed evaluation methods, at the same time this text takes the dynamics of project risk and index-relation into concern, on the basis of it this paper presents the method of artificial neural network risk assessment based on the fuzzy comprehensive assessment, which considers such characteristics of R&D project risk as dynamics and index relativity.In addition, this text uses both the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method and the proposed method to evaluate R&D project risk in order to test if the evaluation method presented is scientific and applicable, at the same time the text also analyzes the evaluated results by way of comparison.