Rmb Nominal Exchange Rate And China's Exports To The U.s. Relationship Empirical Research

In this paper, we use some Time Series Analysis roots such as the Unit Root test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test , make a positive analysis about the influence of the change of RMB nominal exchange rate on the export which from China to America during year 2000 to year 2006. The positive analysis result show that a cointegration relationship exists between them, it means that they have a long-turn dynamic balance. There is not notability effect between the fluctuated extent of RMB nominal exchange rate and export. But the appreciation of RMB doesn't reduce the export, by contraries, it increase the export. This phenomenon is caused by the special trading structure between China and America, which Processing trade takes a great proportion. As a result, the international blame that China's substantive trading surplus is caused by the undervaluing of RMB exchange rate is unreasonable.