Chinese Stock Market Investor Representative Study With A Conservative Bias

In the theory circle of western micro finance, there is serious challenge to the efficient market hypothesis in empirical research in recent years. This promotes another financial theory paradigm becoming flourishing, what is "Behavioral Finance Theory". As the premiss of EMH is the investors are absolutely reasonable, it is also called: "reasonable paradigm", but the promises of behavioral finance theory is the non-reasonable psychological phenomena of investors. By the ten years development of Chinese stock market, it becomes more mature. But there are also a large number of abnormal phenomena in Chinese stock market, and the investors' behavior is also abnormal sometimes. Because the behavioral finance theory is a new being in China, and the special developing course of our capital market, we can't cope the mature theory and practice experience of foreign countries. So the systematic and in-depth research of investors' psychology and decision-making behavior, based of the fact of Chinese capital market, is significant both in theory and practice.Based on the representativeness and conservatism of investors and using the finance, psychology, system engineering and statistics theories, the thesis demonstrate the investors' psychology and decision-making behavior and give some suggestions for different fellowships. First of all, the thesis analyses the basic theory of EMH and behavior finance, including the EMH theory, bounded rationality theory and abnormal investment phenomena, which is the theory basis of the research of investors' psychology and decision-making behavior. Secondly based on the Bayesian model of the static information, the thesis constructs a theory model of the representativeness and conservatism, and then puts forward three hypotheses. By using the data of Shanghai stock market A, the thesis draw a conclusion that there is representativeness to certain extend and there is not conservatism in Chinese stock market. At last, the thesis makes an in-depth analysis for the empirical result from behavior finance and the specialist of Chinese capital market, and gives some advices for supervisors and investors helping mature the Chinese stock market.