An Exploratory Study On The Conservative And Representative In The Stock Index Futures Market

The behavioral finance was founded in the1980s due to a great many of irrational actions in the capital market. In recent years, this branch of finance is always been a hot topic because more and more irrational phenomena have been discovered. In behavioral finance, there are two interesting concept called representativeness and conservatism which was raised by Barberis、Shleifer and Vishny to explicate underreaction and overreaction. This article used these two concepts as well as the Bayesian theory to design a coin experiment. During this experiment, the volunteer showed some interesting behavior pattern. We use some knowledge of statistic and the data of experiment to build an agent call CR Agent.In the history of capital market, the derivatives played a key role. As an important member of derivatives, the Stock Index Future achieved great success. Though this kind of product was new born in China, the market tells us it will be an important one. In this article, we use the CR Agent to explore some significant type of stock index future including H&S300, S&P500, and NIKKE225etc. We find that, though we can’t say the agent can beat the market, it still shows some good features. This might be useful in the future.