Economic Cycles And Industry Fluctuations

In economics,the research of the economy from the angle of the industry is called Structural School. Joseph A.Schumpeter, W.W.Rostow, Chanery and some other economists have made a long-term research of economic fluctuation and its'structure factor. The research of the short-term economic fluctuation mainly concentrated in Modern Cyclical Theory,but the description of the regularity was mainly concentrated in relation between the economical variable and GDP, the research which done from the point of industry was less. Shuma-nn and some other economists have done some work of industrial fluctuation in cycle. Some domestic economists have made introduction of the alteration in industrial structure in fluctuation, while the systemic introduction which refers to the concrete characteristic in economy and industrial fluctuation and the relation of the fluctuation between the industries was lacking.This article analyzed systematically the relation between industrial and economical fluctuation from the aspects of the concrete fluctuation of industry in business cycle, the relation of the fluctuation between different industries, and the influence that the industry cycle caused to the economy and so on. The article including 6 parts, the first two parts mainly introduced the related concept in economic cycle and industrial research and some research methods. The third part was about the different kinds of industrial fluctuation in the process of periodic fluctuation, and the reason that caused the discrepancy in industrial fluctuation. The fourth discovered the cyclical phenomenon of transmit in turn. in industries, and stated the reason of cyclical transmitting.The fifth part expounded the relation between the industry cycle and business cycle. And especially analyzed the conversion characteristic of the leading industries. The sixth part concluded the whole article, and it put forward some suggestion of the regular application according to the conclusion.In this article, the canonical and the positive analysis was combined, and the positive analysis of the data was took as the basis. It balanced the cycle by the growth rate of the economic variable when manage the cyclical data, meanwhile, when it was possible, it estimated the cycle by the cycle factor in the time series. After the calculation and analysis to a great deal of long-term and short-term data of foreign and domestic economy and industry, it got some definite conclusion and revealed the objective regularity in industries, and between the economy and industry. These regularity was of a referenced value when we deepen our understanding to the economy and the industry, and master the regularity and characteristic of the industrial and cyclical fluctuation.