Research On Safety Assessment And Loss Forecast Of Coal Mine Geological Hazard

Recent years have witnessed an increasing number of geological disasters in coal mines, which has claimed many precious lives and caused huge damage to our country. Based on the study of geological disasters in coal mines, this dissertation aims to put forward new methods of safety assessment and loss forecast in order to prevent and control geological disasters.Through in-depth analysis, safety assessment index system and loss forecast index system are established respectively. there are 27 safety assessment indexes, which are:safety consciousness, technical level, body state, mental state, attitude, protective work, equipment design quality, equipment used time, equipment running environment, safeguards, safety mark facilities, alarm devices, hydrology geology structure, coal thickness in goaf area and so on; and there are 11 loss forecast indexes are established, which are:fault, collapse column, goaf collapse, water bursting, surface crack, shaft rupture.As for safety assessment, the weights of safety assessment index system are calculated using hierarchy analysis method. Then the weights were replaced by scores, through which Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation method was modified and MFSA method was put forward.As for loss forecast, in the first place, predict correction coefficient was established and it was derived from Delphi method. Then together with Polynomial curve prediction model, exponential curve prediction model, the logarithmic curves forecast model and Comperz curve forecast model, T&G prediction method was put forward.Lastly, relevant software was developed using Visual C++ and example analysis was made on it, through which safety assessment value was got. Next,5 prediction indexes are chosen from the total 11 prediction indexes as the target prediction indexes and they are water bursting, surface crack, mining subsidence, landslide and collapse, and waste littering. Through calculation prediction errors were got and they are 3.41%,1.14%,0.86%,0.69% and 10.23% respectively. Owing to that all the prediction errors were all less than 20%, it is concluded that T&G prediction was reasonable and reliable. The result of this dissertation enriched the theoretical significance of safety assessment and loss prediction. On the other hand, it contributes to the technical and management countermeasures that are used to dispose of the problems of the geological disasters in coal mine, which has certain practical significance.