Research On Transport Planning Environment Assessment Based On SD-ECC Model

Road construction plays an important role in promoting development and prosperity through a city's development process. However, the environmental impact it brings shouldn't be ignored. It is imperative to adopt transportation strategic environment assessment (SEA) before the planning is carried out. In order to refine the SEA theory and conduct the road construction in Dalian, this paper attempts to incorporate system dynamic (SD) into Environmental carrying capacity (ECC) to develop a SD-ECC forecasting framework. It turns out this model is reliable.The main context is as follows:(1) The background and significance of topic is summarized first. Then, the development history and research progress of transport planning SEA are reviewed. The main trend of transport planning SEA is concluded based on the review. At last, the technology route of the paper is advanced;(2) Theoretical foundation of transport planning is researched in this part. According to the classification of qualitative and quantitative methods, the key technology methods are introduced in this paper. The combination of evaluation methods as an inevitable trend is putting forward in terms of advantages and disadvantages of these methods;(3) ECC is often used as a measuring tool to see whether a region is suitable to exploit. However, this static snapshot of ECC accounting fails to present the dynamic, multi-leveled relationship among the driving forces. Based on this consideration, the paper develops a SD-ECC forecasting framework which includes design goal of SD model, general framework, index system of ECC and calculation methods;(4) This work takes Dalian's transportation planning as a case. A SD model related to social economy and eco-environment is firstly developed using VENSIM DSS with seven alternative scenarios designed based on different policy feasibility and targets. Then, embodied ECC is calculated using the values based on SD simulation. Optimization sorting of seven scenarios is finally done based on calculated results. At last, specific measures are putting forward to realize the optimum scheme.