Does The Carbon Emissions Trajectory Of Our Country Present Kuznets Inverted U Curve?

Based on the Copeland and Taylor(2009)model, this paper builds the EKC theory model which analyzes the path of CO2 emission in China, According the method provided by"IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories",this paper estimates quantity of CO2 emission of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, uses the panel data from 1997 to 2008 and EGLS method to analyze if the CO2 emission EKC exists in our nation, eastern, central and western areas, and calculate the real per capita income and time to reach inflection point. The research result shows: the CO2 emission EKC exists in our nation, eastern and central areas, the income of theory inflection point are 2348.69,3313.15 and 2191.47RMB. But in the western area, the relationship between carbon emission intensity and the real per capita income level presents positive U, and the income of theory inflection point is 1423.52 RMB.We discovered that most provinces have not reached the theory inflection of real per capita income; because of the existing of the great difference between different areas, the governments have to development of policies for the coordination between carbon emission and economic development of ecpnomics according on the heterogeneity of economic development. The eastern areas should further enhance trade openness for the transformation of an open economy model. Though the introduction of environment protection foreign capital, consciously guide it flow to the high-tech industry and services. Most of the middle provinces are resources provinces, we have to increase the protection of the environment while developing resources, promote industrialization and improve the international level. Because of the positive correlation exist in the western provinces, we should speed up the industrialization process, win-win economic development and low-carbon.