Research On Model Comparision For Travel Decision Based On Expected Utility Theory And Prospect Theory

With the accelerated pace of urban development, the transportation system is facing increasing pressure, and most cities which at home or abroad exist a wide range of traffic problems. Traffic congestion is the key to urban transportation issue. To solve this problem, there are two fundamental approaches:hardware, to speed up the transportation infrastructure; software, to enhance the transportation system management. Additionally, studying the travel decision behavior of urban residents is an indispensable basic work about the urban transportation planning, design and management. Through the research, we can get the mechanism of trip generation, behavior patterns, the rules of variation, and the relationship with the road network construction, which can be applied in the transportation system management.At present, every country is researching, exploiting and initially Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS). As a sub-system of information technology, we can improve the travel efficiency, quality and ease the urban traffic by guiding the path selection of traveler. In the course of travelling from one place to another, the travelers make a variety of travel decision behavior, which caused under a traffic environment being all kinds of uncertainties according to their personal experience and real-time traffic information. Therefore, it is more accord with traffic condition at the circumstance of ATIS and the actual choice's mechanism of travelers to research the travel decision behavior under an uncertain environment, and to establish the choice model which is dynamic. Thus, this dissertation's study has some theoretical value and practical significance.In this paper, it firstly analysis the influence factors of travelers'travel decision behavior, described the travel decision process, and briefly introduced the classification and theoretical basis of travel decision model. Secondly, established a travel decision model based on the expected utility theory, and we find that the theory can't explain the travel option mechanism under an uncertainty through analyzing the model. Then, lead to the basic framework of prospect theory, proposes the determining method of reference point, determined the travelers'individual subjective probability function, and so the ascertains decision weighting function. Combining with the value function which was given at the editing phase, thus obtained every alternative route's prospect value at the evaluate stage, and then, chose the final travel path which had the largest prospect value. At last, the paper established a virtual uncertain network, calculated the travelers' route choice results based on the two theoretical models separately, and proved the prospect theory can descript travelers' trip decision behavior in real life more realistic. Simultaneously, gave a comprehensive comparison and analysis to the two theories.