Research On Settings Of Reference Point In Route Choice Behaviour Based Prospect Theory

Route choice behavior is one of hotspots in the field of traffic behavior, most of the present studies are carried out in the certain environment and the travelers are assumed to be perfectly rational. The prospect theory takes into account the psychological characteristics of travelers in the decision-making process and has been widely used in the study of route choice behavior in the past decades. As the demarcation point to distinguish gains and losses,the definition of reference point and its value are concerned by many researchers. The selection of reference point will directly influence the final decision results, we should make a comprehensive and systematic study on the formation mechanism and location of reference point.This paper firstly describes an approach to decision making based on prospect theory and the phenomenon of the existence of reference point dependence in the process of decision making is revealed. We start from the formation mechanism of reference point and analyze the factors that influence the selection of individual reference point. Sensitivity of reference point is conducted. The results show that the difference of the reference point will lead to the inversion of the prospect value .On the basis, considering different reference point settings, a selection experiment of single path is designed.The value of reference points based on questionnaire is redefined and we evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various setting methods of reference point by comparing the predictive ability of models under different situations. The results show that the advanced reference point setting method can improve the prediction ability compared with traditional methods.In the last chapter, A travel decision model based accumulated experience is formulated based on Prospect Theory and the Bayes Law. After a deep analysis of the characters on continuous daily travel decisions,a route selection experiment is designed and the change rules of reference point are discussed based on the experimental data. The results show that the factors of risk attitude and travel experience have significant influence on the adjustment of reference points.By an integration of normative research and empirical analysis, this paper applies behavioral science to travel behavior analysis and modeling based on rational behavior assumptions and research method. We make an empirical study on the reference point setting based prospect theory and a reasonable selection method of reference point is proposed. The issues that are not perfectly and deeply discussed are put forward, which is the direction of future research.