Research On Travel Route Choice Model Based On Prospect Theory

With the improvement of people's living standards,the per capita car ownership has being increased year by year,which caused a lot of traffic problems.Traffic congestion is one of the most serious problems,but the traditional traffic system management and traffic demand management have been unable to alleviate it.Most domestic scholars agreed that the Intelligent Transportation System(ITS)and Advanced Traveler Information System(ATIS)are effective ways to solve this problem.However,the core of ATIS is the route choice problem.So the study of route choice has a great effect on the improvement of ATIS.Domestic and international scholars have made a systematic and deep research on the route choice problem under certain environment and have made a series of research results.However,the research on route choice under uncertain environment is still the hot research problem.The expected utility theory is an effective way to solve the problem of route choice in uncertain environment.But the utility theory holds that assumptions which are completely rational has a big gap with the realistic route choice behavior.While the prospect theory assumes that people are bounded rational and it can be used to solve the problem of route choice in uncertain environment,which is verified by a large number of empirical studies.So this paper studies the problem of traveler route choice in uncertain environment through the prospect theory.Firstly,the classification of the route choice problem in the uncertain environment is analyzed and three kinds of route choice model are introduced in detail.Then the background,the framework and the development and application of the prospect theory are presented.Next,the applicability of prospect theory to route choice is analyzed.Secondly,the travel time budget interval is calculated by considering the reliability requirements of travelers arriving on time and the definition of travel time budget.On this basis,the arrival time based on travel time budget is used as the two reference points of the model and the value function model based on departure time is established.Then the decision weighting function is determined by the subjective probability of the travelers.Next the starting time and route choice model based on the prospect theory is established.Through the SP survey of the commuter,the arrival time distribution of the different types of commuters was obtained and verified with an example.Finally,a dynamic route choice model based on prospect theory is established through traveler's decision-making process based on prospect theory.Then the algorithm of the dynamic model is proposed and validated through an example.Next,through a case study,the comparison of the route choice model based on the utility theory and the prospect theory shows that the prospect theory can describe the traveler 's decision-making behavior under the uncertainty condition more accurately.