Research On Water Resources Carrying Capacity And Optimal Allocation In Jiansanjiang Branch Bureau

Sanjiang Plain is the important commodity grain base of China. In recent years, along with the population growth, development of socio-economic and the rapid growth of irrigation scale, the demand for water resources is also increasing rapidly. Water scarcity, over pumping of groundwater and imbalance exploitation between surface water-groundwater coexisted in Sanjiang Plain. These problems resulted in the contradiction between water supply and demand, become important factors which restricted the regional sustainable development. Therefore, it is important to in-depth study the conditions of regional water resources carrying capacity, optimally allocate the water resource while broadening sources of income and reducing expenditure, improving the utilization of surface water and spreading control irrigation. That can provide scientific basis for the recovery of regional groundwater, increasing the limited water resources utilization efficiency and the sustainable socio-economic development. And that is of great significance for guaranteeing grain security.In view of the existing problems of water resources development and utilization in Sanjiang Plain, this paper taking Jiansanjiang agricultural reclamation branch bureau in Heilongjiang province as object to study its water resources condition. Evaluated the water resources carrying capacity in 2008, and on this basis study the optimal allocation of water resources in 2010, 2015 and 2020.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Referred a large number of literature references, according to the practical condition of water resources utilization in Jiansanjiang branch bureau, used the gray correlation model to choose 9 indices which were typical, easy to be achieved and quantified, and confirmed the evaluation standard. In order to get the objective weight which based on the indices data themselves, entropy-weight method was applied to confirm the indices weight coefficients.(2)The water resources carrying capacity of each farm belong to Jiansanjiang branch bureau in 2008 were evaluated through using models of matter-element theory, the membership function based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the Euclid approach degree based fuzzy matter-element. Synthesized the advantage of three evaluation models, acquired the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity. The results were consistent the practical water resources development and utilization state, scientific and reliability.(3) Applied grey self-memory model to fit and forecast the groundwater depth of Farm Qixing in Jiansanjiang branch bureau. The study indicated the temporal variation regulation of groundwater depth series, reflected the significant trend that groundwater depth deepening year by year. Proposed countermeasures and suggestions to protect local groundwater resources and improve the regional water resources capacity. (4) Aiming at the regional sustainable socio-economic development, Forecasted the water supply capacity, population development scale, cultivated area and industrial production growth in 2010, 2015 and 2020 in Jiansanjiang branch bureau, according to the development planning. The living, agricultural and industrial water demand of each farms in the future years were obtained by using quota method.(5) Established the water resources system multi-objective optimization model in Jiansanjiang branch bureau, taking the economic and social maximum benefits as the objective function, the water supply capacity, water demand capacity of water consumption system and variable non-negative as the constraints. Applied the real coding based accelerating genetic algorithm to solve the model, obtained the water resources optimal allocation results of each water consumption department in 2010, 2015 and 2020.(6) The water shortage degree analysis of the optimal allocation results showed that, the volume of water shortage in Jiansanjiang branch bureau decreased each year, the water resources condition improving gradually. The water resources carrying capacity evaluation showed that, the ability of each farm has dramatically increased. Thus determined the optimal allocation model and solution method are effective and feasible, and the optimal allocation results are reasonable.