Research Of Load Forecasting Method Considering Power Demand Side Management

Plenty application of power demand side management will change the load characteristic and destroy the load developing law. Different means of demand side management have different effects on load and should be deeply analyzed. Then the variation law of load can be achieved and will supply the scientific data base for power system expansion planning.According to the potential analysis of different means of demand side management and combining the power condition with user type, the load forecasting method considering demand side management is researched in this paper. The load cutting measure is regarded as the planning resource. The comprehensive resource planning work is studied to supply new reference for network expansion planning. The main work in this paper is as follows:Firstly, the quantitative technique of demand side management is analyzed. The load recovery technique is proposed based on the detailed load controlling data. The true load cutting number of the demand side management is calculated. The real effect of demand side management is quantified.Secondly, by parameter correction of the electric quantity forecasting method, load density forecasting method and business expanding comparative method, the load forecasting method considering demand side management is gotten. The demand side management factor is seen as controlling variable in load forecasting model. The multiple regression model and support vector model are used in load forecasting work.Thirdly, the load forecasting results considering demand side management are obtained combing the status of Songjiang power grid based on above methods.Lastly, based on the load forecasting research considering the demand side management, the effection of demand side management on the value of power capacity-load ratio is studied. The reasonable value of power capacity-load ratio for different voltage grades is deeply analyzed. The variance of the power capacity-load ratio value is shown in qualitative considering the demand side management.