Reserve Capacity Optimization Based On Load Forecasting Credibility And Load Time Elasticity

With the volatile and large-scale power resources replenishing our supply system, randomness of network supply load and uncertainty of operation are influenced rapidly and deeply. Considering its costing, a security power system quite eager to get a reserve capacity. In view of this, two methods of analysis, namely the optimization of reserve capacity based on load forecasting credibility, and load time elasticity on the perspective of load forecasting from the power demand side management respectively, have been proposed in this paper indeed. It has been proved that the reserve capacity can be optimized on the basis of the economy and security in power systems under some premise, such as high credibility of short-term load forecasting or high level of load time elasticity.In regard of the above questions, this paper mainly studies the following aspects:First of all, the conception and the index of load forecasting credibility are illustrated in this paper. The credibility method has been used to uncertainty analysis and errors quantitatively. It is proved that there is correlation between credibility and reserve capacity by causes, and the reserve capacity optimism based on load forecasting credibility is proposed. Meanwhile, the load forecasting credibility in future can be forecasted, and the comparison of load forecasting and credibility forecasting is listed.Secondly, the reserve capacity probabilistic forecasting is presented in this paper. The reserve capacity error distribution statistical model is established by two dimensions including time interval and load level, and the effectiveness test is improved. As a result, the probabilistic reserve capacity obtains by combining the statistical distribution of reserve capacity error with the expected value of reserve capacity, and the envelope curves of reserve capacity calculates under a certain confidence.Then, the concept of the time elasticity of electric load which fully consider the characteristics of the consumers' choices on the different consumption time is putting forward in this paper. In the aspects of qualitative and quantitative analysis,a new evaluated method of time elasticity of electric load that transferred between different time is proposing. By demonstrating the relationship between load time elasticity and reserve capacity, the reserve capacity optimism based on load time elasticity is proposed, and the algorithm flow chart is also plotting.In all, methods including reserve capacity optimization based on load forecasting credibility and load time elasticity on the perspective of load forecasting from the power demand side management respectively are proposed in paper, would benefit our the power systems in running orderly, safely and economically.