Research On The Monitoring And Power Forecasting Model Of Photovoltaic Power System

With the development of application of photovoltaic power generation, its supervision becomes more and more important. The monitoring system of photovoltaic power generation is an important part of photovoltaic power generation. It plays an important role on accurately handling the operation of photovoltaic power station, completing the evaluation of photovoltaic power station and optimizing the design of photovoltaic power station. Photovoltaic power prediction is an important daily work in energy scheduling and is a main factor in making power transmission and distribution plan.Based on New Energy Demonstration Laboratory of Donghua University, this paper focuses on the monitoring and power forecasting model of photovoltaic power system. Overall design, environment monitor design, data communication, power forecasting model and the interface of center monitor are analyzed and studied.This paper analyzes the function and structure of the monitoring system of photovoltaic power generation. The software and hardware of the environment monitor are discussed in detail. It realizes the collection of component temperature, environmental temperature, irradiance and wind speed.This paper analyzes the design of communication in photovoltaic power system based on the VB6.0 and Kingview6.53. It realizes the network construction between the environment monitor and local monitor. It also realizes the writing of the communication protocol based on RS485. The characteristic of the communication system is kingview 6.53 and VB6.0 exchange the data in the form of DDE. It uses the convenient interface function of configuration software and also with VB achieves a large volumes of serial communication, data analysis and processing.Power forecasting is a critical issue in energy management of photovoltaic power monitoring system. Though the comparison of three mainstream power forecasting models, this paper analyzes the influence factors of electricity and designs a novel power forecasting model based on elman neural network. This model divides into several son models according different types of weather and seasons. Son models take the data of temperature and history power as input data and finish the training and simulation analysis. Prediction results verify the validity of the model. It has an important significance in keeping the balance of power and economic operation.By the end, monitoring interfaces are designed by different level and permission based on the KingView 6.53. The first level is the operation system of the whole system which has the lowest permission. The second level is the interface transition base on the menu which has the second level permission. The third level is the operating parameter of the equipment for photovoltaic system which has the highest permission. Besides the regular function such as display of the operating system and system alarm, the system also adhere many other functions such as XY ActiveX and SQL database which can make the user acknowledge the operating situation of the photovoltaic system more precisely.The monitoring and power forecasting of the photovoltaic power system provide a optimal solution for the intelligent of solar power. It makes a huge contribution to the localization and the performance of the monitoring system and power forecasting model.