Establishment And Application Of Citrus Drought Forecasting Model In Chongqing Beibei

At present, citrus is the Chongqing largest fruit production, personnel engaged in the citrus and related industry is more than million and citrus industry is the pillar industry in Chongqing agricultural economy, is also the farmer a-mass revenue. Along with the further promotion of the opening, domestic and international citrus and processed will create a different degree impac t to Chongqing citrus, to reduce the influence, safeguard the interests of the citrus farmers and ensure the healthy development of the citrus industry of Chongqing, we must accelerate to ascend Chongqing citrus competition. The key is in certain cultivated area, to enhance citrus yield and quality. Citrus growth and development is based on the water, so citrus orchard water management has a direct impact on the yield and quality of citrus, especially in the key period of citrus growth, we must ensure the water balance of supply and demand. But in recent years, with global warming and pacific elnino effect, together with southern region climate of elnino response lagging behind, and Chongqing is located in high temperature in the subtropical high frequency to happen hot and dry weather. Drought'has become the important harm to threat citrus growth. When discovery has drought, taking measures of citrus groves is already late, therefore, soil moisture and leaf water are used to predict the future water change of citrus, when data deviates from a range of indicators, it is necessary to take timely measures. In addition, with human economic development aad population expansion, serious water shortages phenomenon, effective use of water resources is worth our concern. In conclusion, this paper puts forward developing a citrus drought warning system, and focuses on how to build such a model and apply it in order to reduce the negative impact of drought on citrus yield and quality.The study found that real-time status of citrus growing environment of soil moisture and leaf water directly impact on the yield and quality of citrus. Thus, the paper uses quantitative and qualitative analysis and other methods to construct the citrus drought warning model of soil moisture and leaf water. For the collected 28 factors that affected the soil moisture and leaf water, using extracting common factors and regression analysis, prediction equation based on public factors is constructed. It is used to calculate the prediction value of soil moisture and leaf water content. And then verified and modified by the really measured value and MAPE criteria of assessing and forecasting accuracy. Upon examination of the value of soil moisture content, the MAPE value y1 is about 12.1, so precision type belongs to accuracy. The MAPE value of citrus leaf water content is about 1.9, so precision type belongs to excellent. Namely two warning models are high accuracy, and can be used to predict citrus garden soil moisture and leaf water content situation of Chongqing Beibei, and combined with expert knowledge and the citrus drought warning criterion to empirical test and warning analysis of the two early warning model, validating out the two early warning model error rates are within 6%, and having higher prediction accuracy and stability. Finally puting forward some suggestions on early warning model using and citrus water management.