A Study On Early Warning Of Grassland Fire Disaster Risk In Hulunbeier Of Inner Mongolia

Grassland fire disaster is one of a sudden, destructive, hard to disposal grassland disasters, it caused a great threat to the pastoral people's lives and property in Pastoral, and it is a great threat to the economic construction and social stability. It also cause a serious impact in the stable development of China's livestock industry and people's living environment as well as pose a serious threat to Homeland Security. Grassland fire is the main factor of the occurrence of forest fire. In China, researchers are mainly in the study of forest fire disasters, and the study of grassland fire research is lagging behind.In this research, early warning of grassland fire disaster risk was modeled through the study of six livestock counties of Hulunbeir grassland, based on data of Hulunbuir prairie fire statistics on statements and related meteorological data from 1994 to 2005 and theories of risk of natural disasters, and of regional disaster system, and of disaster early warning. Logistic regression model was used in the identification of the key factors influence the early warning of grassland fire disaster risk; in the calculation the weight of individual indicators, analytic hierarchy through scoring by experts was used; grid GIS technology combined with regression analysis was used in the spatial distribution of indicators of the constituency which will make space rating scale more accurate; warning source of endogenous and exogenous sources of warning signs of Hulunbeier grassland fires was analysis through weighted comprehensive analysis; with the optimal partitioning of the fire cases from 1994 to 2004, early warning threshold was identified and was divided into the blue, yellow, orange and red alarm. Grassland fire risk warning has been calculated on Hulunbuir, take all the fires on Hulunbeir grassland in 2005 for instance. Indicators of exogenous source on the day the fire broke out were girded, and fire prediction probability values was computed for each grid, and then superimposed with fire point to verify the accuracy of early warning. It shows a good agreement between high risk fire areas of early warning and fire point, which, in terms, tested the accuracy of the model in a certain degree.Through the study of six livestock counties of Hulunbeir grassland, we get the initial exploration of early warning of grassland fire disaster risk. The result can be taken a reference and guidance to managing the prairie fire disaster and mitigating the fire disaster and reducing the losses caused by it.