The Grassland Fire Disaster Risk Assessment Based On Information Fusion Theory In Northern China

With the development of disaster research and economy, disaster risk assessment has become a new research area, which will help decision makers to choose optimal technical polices to manage disaster and to set up disaster mitigation strategies. As one of important nature disasters, the Grassland disaster has been deeply influence the development of stockbreeding. So it is necessary to take research in grassland fire risk. Using corresponding data of grassland fire form1991 to 2005 and statistical method, we analysis spatial and temporal distributing characteristic of grassland fire risk. Take the Grassland of Jilin Province as a study case, On the basis of information diffusion and risk analyze theory; applying the historical grassland fire data from grassland fire fighting agency of Jilin province, we calculated the probability that the grassland fire will occur at various risk level. The research regarded the various level as losses, and according to the risk formula, we got the risk value of grassland fire in Jilin province; and solved the problem that using historical little samples can't calculated the probability. In terms of natural disaster generate mechanism and risk analysis formula, the grassland fire disaster risk index (GFDRI) is set up based on the analysis of grassland fire hazard, exposure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery ability by using linear weighting model, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grassland disaster risk evaluate model. The risk values of grassland fire disaster are calculated respectively in the west of Jilin province. The study was divided into terribly heavy, heavy, middle and light, the four risk regionalization. The results have higher reliability by examined. This study can be expected to provide the reference and guidance for grassland fire disaster insurance, managing grassland fire disaster and developing strategies to mitigate grassland fire hazard and reducing the losses from it. Because of grassland fire disaster was influenced by many factors, the index such as vegetation and terrain should be took into account when the study put on other place where the terrain fluctuant acute and the vegetation is various. At same time, the index value should be change correspondingly. In the further research the spatial data should be applied to describe the distribution and variety of grassland fire risk.