Xianju Dendrolimus Punctatus Forecast

Dendrolimus punctatus Walker-Pine caterpillar is a historic destructive pest in Pinus massoniana Lamb. forest in south China, the forecasting of it's population density, damage area and tree damage rate is one of the basic works for sustainable control of Pine caterpillar. Based on the local meteorological data, Pine caterpillar's biological and ecological characteristics, utilizing the the theory and methods of geostatistics and major components analysis,to analyze Pine caterpillar occurrence data from April 1983 to July 2010 in different areas in Xianju county, Zhejiang, China, this research presents the dynamic changes of damage area, population density of Pine caterpillar and tree damage rate with shifts of meteorological factors, time and space. After extending the theories and methods of geostatistics to space-time domain, researches on spatial and seasonal changing principles of Pine caterpillar damage area, population density and tree damage rate in different areas were carried by utilyzing Krige Method in space-time domain. Combination of Pine caterpillar's occurrence characteristic in Xianju county and the theories of forest insects sustainable control, taking ecologically adjusting Pine caterpillar as it's theoretical basis, sustaining the pattern, process and Biodiversity of Pinus massoniana forest's ecosystem, to probe the methods for Pine caterpillar's long-term sustainable control was also carried on. The results include:1 Established Spatial-Temporal Regression Models for forecasting population density, damage area and tree damage rate of Pine caterpillar separately. Precision rate of the population density forecasting model and occurence area forecasting model are 100%, that of the attacking rate forecasting model is 50%, which all the data used that weren't involved in models construction.2 Firstly utilyzing spatiotemporal Krige method, established product-sum models for forecasting population density, damage area and tree rate of Pine caterpillar separately. Precision rates of all of the forecasting models are 100%, the data used didn't involve in models construction.3 Beside forecasting, utilizing silviculture, physical control, and bionic pesticide as main control techniques, protect and employ natural enemies, promoter Pinus massoniana forest ecological environment, enhance it's anti-pests ability. Pupa parasites in sealed mountains were higher than that in unsealed ones for 10.7%. Trapping pest consistently with black light lamp has long-term control effect.