"sany" Investment Value Analysis

After about 10 years of development, Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd, has become the leading construction machinery manufacturer in China, which has done good performance. However, under the current circumstances of the weak recovery of macroeconomic, it is focused more on whether it could still keep the former rapid growth in the future.Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd (SANY,600031.SH), was chosen as my object to be analyzed in this thesis. thesis. The evaluation of SANY was carried out by the macro-economic analysis, the industry analysis and the company general introduction respectively, in which we practised the top-down method. We made a reasonable valuation of SANY at length. It is expected that these analysis should provide useful suggestions for the average investors to make their investment decisions.In this paper, the results of our analysis are as follow:First of all, China will be rapid economic development stage still in the next five years. The construction machinery industry will remain high growth, through the promotions of High-speed railway, urbanization, real estate construction and other social investment in fixed assets. Meanwhile, China has become the world's manufacturing center, economic globalization will also give Chinese construction machinery industry great opportunities. The whole industry would have 20% growth and 30% growth in the leading enterprise, in the next five years.Secondly, as a leading construction machinery manufacturer in China, SANY with good financial situation has already formed the leading edge in brand, quality and services. As the industry growth and expansion of product and international layout, Sany is expected to achieve higher annual growth than the industry average, to 30%. And it is expected to 50% in 2011.Finally, according to the analysis of closely typical factors with SANY, we make forecast of the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow conditions. And then, we estimate the value by the FCFF model and P/E model respectively, obtain the reasonable value of SANY 38.50～40.12 yuan per share as a result. However, the price of SANY is in the fluctuations of 20.52～27.80 yuan since 2011. Integrated the whole-length analysis and estimation, we suggested that it had a long term investment value. It can be chosen the right time to buying in a low valuation range, and long-term investment is involved in doing a better choice.