LUCC Dynamic Simulation Responding To Global Climate Change In Tuojia River Catchment

The land use change dynamic simulation became more and more essential, and then utilizing models to resolve the problem was proved more available. Therefore, in this paper, Four land-use/land-cover maps covering the study area (135 km2) and spanning the temporal frames of 1933,1955,1990 and 2005, and within three administrative districts (AD) (Jinjing, Guanjia and Tuojia) were used. The results showed that from 1933 to 2005 the same landscape pattern has emerged since 1933, even though a major trend was observed, which consisted in presenting a decrease in the forest area resulting from an increase in arable land. Overall, there were 12.7 km2 of forest lands converted to paddy fields, accounting for 13% of the total forest area in 1933. The landscape indexes analysis demonstrated that the landscape became more heterogeneous from 1933 to 1990, and the patch fragmenting trend showed reasonably stable since 1990. Compared with other ADs, the Jinjing district showed a contrasting trajectory in the temporal trend of LPI, indicating a distinct urbanization there since 1990. In the Guanjia district, there was a different temporal trend in respect to FRAC, suggesting that the district was experiencing a disordered development and thus a comprehensive planning should be concerned. The predominant driving forces for the land-use/land-cover changes were the land terrain and governmental decision-making. The human activities, i.e. the rapid population growth and migration, might also be the important factors leading to the eco-environmental deterioration of the studied catchment. By repeatedly simulating analysis, the land use conversion elasticity and land use transition sequences were characterized. The land use transition sequences of Tea, resident, paddy, forest, road, lake and river are 0.5,0.3,0.8,0.8,0.1,0.3 and 0.1, respectively. Taking the parameters into the model built Dyna-CLUE model and testing it using 1933, 1955,2005 land use maps. The accuracy of the simulation approached to 80.4%in 1933,85.6%in 1955 and 87.5%in 2005. Finally, Dyna-CLUE model was used to simulate the land use change in the next 100 years according the temperature in the research area, the results suggested that Dyna-CLUE model had a strong capability of predicting the land use change.