Modeling And Analysis Of Driving Forces Of Urban Land Use Change

Land use/cover change(LUCC)is one of the focus issues of current research in China and even in the international scientific research field.Understanding the characteristics of land use change and its internal driving mechanism is not only conducive to promoting the sustainable development of urban land,but also is of great significance to the government and land management departments in regulating land development.In recent years,Licheng District of Jinan City has adhered to the main line of new urbanization development.The urban space has expanded rapidly and the land use change is very significant.In this paper,taking Licheng District of Jinan City as an example and is based on the three phases of land use data in 2009,2014,and 2019.For the data,above all,using the land use structure table,single land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix analysis to study the characteristics of regional land use change,and then using Fragstats software to analyze the landscape pattern change.The paper introduces GeoDedector to explore the internal driving mechanism of the study area,revealing the influence of natural,social and economic factors on construction land and cultivated land use changes.Finally,based on the CLUE-S model,the spatial distribution pattern of land use in Licheng District of Jinan City in 2025 under the natural development scenario was simulated on the trend of land use change in 2009-2019.The main research conclusions are as follows:1.Analysis of changes in land use structureFrom 2009 to 2014,the land use changed little and was relatively stable.The land-use types changed relatively significantly during 2014-2019.Compared with 2014,the forest land area increased by 61.55km~2,transportation land increased by 16.47km~2,garden land increased by 21.56km~2,urban land increased by 18.26km~2,cultivated land area decreased by 80.93km~2,grassland decreased by 16.95km~2,rural land decreased by 15.76km~2,the rest land use types are little change in 2019.2.Analysis of landscape pattern changes1)Type scaleFrom 2009 to 2019,the degree of fragmentation in the Licheng District has increased to varying degrees.The dominant degree of cultivated land has decreased significantly.The dominant degree of forest land and urban land has increased,indicating that human interference is frequent.The large LPI of urban land indicates that the urban development center is more concentrated.Others The degree of aggregation is also high.2)Landscape scaleDuring 2009-2019,the degree of landscape fragmentation increased,the spread index showed a downward trend,land use richness increased,ecosystem diversity increased,and the disturbance of human activities greatly accelerated the process of balanced landscape distribution.The urban landscape system is not dominated by one patch type,but multiple types simultaneously dominate,which is more conducive to maintaining the balance of the ecosystem and improving the ecological environment of the city.3.Analysis result of driving force based on GeoDedectorThe driving force analysis of the construction land and cultivated land was carried out by the selected natural factors and socio-economic factors through Geodetector.The change in the proportion of secondary industry in factor detector had the greatest influence on the change in construction land.The change of the proportion of the secondary industry with the elevation in interaction detector has the greatest impact on the change in construction land;for the change of cultivated land,the elevation on the factor detection has the greatest influence,and the interaction between the elevation and the change of the proportion of the primary industry has the greatest influence in interaction detector.4.Simulation results of CLUE-S model1)Simulating the land use change in Licheng District in 2019 based on CLUE-S model and comparison with real 2019 land use data,the simulated kappa value is 0.89,which indicates that the model settings of the model are suitable for simulating the land use change of Licheng District trend.2)Under the natural development scenario,the land use of Licheng District in 2025 is simulated.and the local categories are basically changed according to the expected standards.The simulation results show that under the natural development scenario,grassland,cultivated land and construction land in Licheng District are in a decreasing trend,and land for transportation,forest land,water system and garden land are in an increasing trend.Among them,the most reduced cultivated land is located in Dongjia Street and Tangwang town in the north.The areas with the most growth in the garden are located in the southern Ganggou Street and Caishi Street,and the areas with the most obvious forest land changes are in the south of Licheng District.The largest increase in transportation land is located in Wangsheren Street,Baoshan Street,and Guodian Street in the central part.The change of construction land revolves around the expansion and shrinkage of the original construction land and internal filling.3)The research shows that the CLUE-S model can better simulate the land use/land use cover change in Licheng District,and the research conclusion provides a certain scientific basis for the relevant departments to do land planning and other aspects later...