Analysis And Simulating Prediction Of Jiaozhou Bay Urban Expansion

Urban spatial expansion is a complicated continuous operating temporal and spatial dynamic process which involved in many social factors, it's a developing process which urban form continuously adapt for the changes of functional requirements. Urban spatial expansion break down the existing balance of city function and structure, establishes a new balance which fit for economy healthy development and realizes harmonious development of city internal structures.Supported by the subject"Satellite Remote Sensing Investigation and Research of Islands and Coastal zones in Shandong and Jiangsu Section", we take Jiaozhou bay of Shandong province as study area and use four periods remote sensing images as main data sources, assisted by field investigation, we get four periods land-use data. This paper analysis the land use changes in Jiaozhou Bay with an appropriate classification system. On the basis of above, we simulated the development of Jiaozhou bay and get control parameters and circulation period. Foremore we predict year 2010 and 2020 Jiaozhou bay land use status. The main conclusion as follow:(1)Between 20 years, Jiaozhou Bay has a big change in land use patterns. Habitation and industrial lands and commercial lands were continuously increasing from year 1986 to 2007, but vacant land continuously increased by contraries.(2)With Cellular Automata, we run Jiaozhou Bay city expansion simulation, the first three periods data for training and the last one for validation, and got control parameters and cycle period.(3)Based on Jiaozhou Bay city expansion CA model, we predict year 2010 to year 2020 Jiaozhou Bay city expansion. The results indicate that both east and west sides of Jiaozhou Bay will expand northwards and converge at Hongdao. For Qingdao intracity district, in urban area it shows that industrial land change to commercial land. In urban fringe it shows industrialization; For Huangdao economic development zone, it will still shows a cosmical industrialization, but there exists a huge; Hongshiya town and Yinghai town started to appear urbanization Process, industrial land increased rapidly, the development Status is like that Huangdao economic development zone from year 1986 to 2000.