Study On Dynamic Simulation Of Urban Land Use System In Changchun City

With the rapid social development in China,the urbanization level is gradually improving.However,with the gradual deepening of urbanization,the growth rates of different indicators of population,economy and land use show a downward trend to varying degrees.The unbalanced development rate exposes the risk of uncoordinated development among economy,society and land use.From the perspective of land use,this paper analyzes the relationship and structure of various factors in the process of urbanization,which is beneficial to show the process of urban development.At the same time,it is certain reference significance for the sustainability of urban development and the rational use of land.In order to predict the future development of land use system in Changchun,this paper uses the method of system dynamics to simulate the land use structure,economy,population and some other factors of Changchun city,and uses the neural network analysis and cellular automata model to simulate the spatial state of urban land growth.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.The results show that the simulated built-up area of Changchun city in 2033 is1005.93 square kilometers;the simulated results of total population is 4,108,900;the simulated results of GDP is 1204.59 billion yuan;the growth of urban land space shows a radial expansion trend.2.The results of system dynamics simulation show that the contradiction between urban population and land use in Changchun will continue to worsen under natural conditions,but the speed of contradiction aggravation slows down with time.From 2018 to 2033,the per capita growth of built-up area will be 61.3%.3.Scenario simulation of policy orientation shows that under the real estate policy simulation,industrial scenario orientation simulation and education orientation simulation,the per capita built-up area is lower than that under natural state simulation,which shows that can ameliorate the contradiction of urban human-land growth rate.Under the education-oriented simulation,the total population in 2033 is 7.1% higher than that in the natural situation,the total built-up area is 1.57% higher than that in the natural situation,and the per capita built-up area is 5.47% lower than that in the natural situation.In the real estate policy scenario simulation,when the housing purchase policy inhibits the housing purchase demand of investment demand,the growth area of urban built-up area will be reduced by about 10% at the end of the simulation.4.The simulation of urban land space utilization shows that the rational development direction of the city is based on the current situation of the city and develops continuously around the city center.In the case that no constraint layer is set,although the overall urban land has increased in data during the simulation,its spatial performance is not obvious,and there is no obvious difference in the direction of urban land growth,which still shows a radial urban expansion trend.In setting up the basic farmland as constraint layer,the trend of urban land expansion changes.The overall expansion in southwestern city construction land expansion and in the northeast of the quantity is little.The urban expansion area concentrate in the city center,And the expansion of construction land from the original urban center will be reduced,especially in the west and northwest of the city.