Research On "Two-Gap" Paradox Of Macro-economy In Our County On Dual Finance Perspective

For the issue that foreign resources utilization in developing countries, there is the Two-Gap Analysis provided by famous economists Hollis B. Chenery and Alan M. Strout in 1966. They think that there exist some bottlenecks that limit economic growth in developing countries, for example, skill, savings, foreign exchange and so on. Only depending on its own resources and subsistent production structure, it is hard to break these bottlenecks so that economy grows quickly and ceaselessly. While introduction of foreign resources can relieve these bottlenecks temporarily by balancing savings gap and trade gap, as economy develops to some stage, reducing the inflows of foreign resources to make economy reach gradually self-sustaining growth. This is the important theoretic basis to introduce foreign investments in the initial stage of our country's reform and openness. However, since the early 1990s, in our country, domestic savings excesses investment and relative savings surplus appears. Trade surplus also enlarges over years. Obviously, there not exist savings gap or trade gap, economy develops quickly and ceaselessly, but foreign investments still inflow in quantity. This phenomenon is against Two-Gap Analysis obviously, and it seems contradictory itself—in the condition that it doesn't lack fund, but it uses external capital.This paper tries to give this phenomenon an economics explaination by establishing a dual finance -efficiency complementation analysis framework, and combing relative data to establish econometric models to test and verify. The main viewpoint is just as follow. In the process of the transition to market economy, many fields in our country of marketization is proceeding in succession which causes domestic savings to grow quickly, but there is not marketization accordingly in financial field, dual finance control is carried in finance sector. It's character is, plus deposit rate is took to mobilize a big account savings fund, so savings flow mainly in the form of deposit into banking institution dominated by SOCB, and translated into investments in the form of loan. In this condition, SOCB make weak credit constraint for state-own enterprises, which results in loan cannot be economized in state-own sections, causing NPA and recessive risk; and hard credit constraint for non-state-own corporations whose investment effective is high relatively, as a result, their external financing becomes difficult and they lack capital. Such finance control just makes domestic finance resources allocation distorted, and the effective of savings translated into investment lows, causing domestic savings to excess. Foreign investments mainly in the form of FDI inflow, with the message that foreign finance sections allocate finance resources effectively, to lead domestic savings split-flow, just making up the imperfection of domestic finance sector, to boost domestic fund economizing.