Empirical Analysis On Speculating Bubbles

The froth theory is actually the application of property price theory, the higher superelevation price part than the property foundation value is the froth, and the pricing is always the core research area in finance. The property price reasonable or not will decide this product's market order, especially the housing property which has major impact to the national economy and the lives of the people, its price rationality's influence is profound, once the housing price froth high to a certain limit, then it will cause a succession of social question.If the froth bust up,will even initiate the international economy and society's turbulence. However the existing empirical study of housing price about China are few,and because the difference of the data sample or the research method, the identical city's findings is inconsistent. Also there are some articles using the internationally index of housing froth to judge whether our country have the house price froth, but as a result of the domestic and foreign national condition's difference, this judgment method has encountered the question. The existing report and opinion lack the scientific basis, this has initiated my article to study whether the Chinese housing price have speculating froth.What is the house price froth?How to judge whether the house price is the speculating froth? What's the regulate measure? These will be the key points which this article studies.This article has constructed a house price measurement model on the basis of studies both in and abroad,and this article unified the positive feedback effect and the partial equilibrium theory, with the econometrics model we do the research of whether there's a speculating froth in Beijing's house price on both macroscopic and the microscopic domain,we analyzed the house price froth formation mechanism and its primary cause, and has carried on the contrast examination to Beijing and the US under the identical model frame, provided a method to judge whether Beijing's current house price include a speculating froth. Afterward,we construct a froth index, through this further analysis we confirmed the model's judgment, and has given the concrete depth of house price froth. We hope this method may provide the policy maker a reference, promotes the real estate market healthy development.This article content divides into the following five parts. The first part is introductory, proposes the research background and the topic significance. The second part is the theory basic of bubble and housing bubble,we introduced the froth definition, the classification, the inspection procedure, and the house price froth related literature. The third part elaborated the partial equilibrium theory in detail, and has carried on a brief vertical analysis. The fourth part is the empirical study part, including:the data originates, the data statistical description, the model construction and the examination. The model uses Beijing 2006-2010 year data and American 1991-2006 year data makes a contrastive analysis separately, afterward we using the partial correlation coefficient constructed the house price index. The fifth part is the conclusion and the policy suggestion.The conclusion is:First,at present the actual purchasing power of Beijing resident is low, the house price growth is excessively quickly.The house price income differential is big,The house price income ratio is 4.72-10.64, is bigger than international standard 3-6 times,and has further inflation tendency. Our one year loan rate policy is stabler, so it will not cause the market fluidity.Second, Beijing house price excess growth rate and its first-order lag value both have a promote effect on housing price, this is similar to the American loan crisis's even market condition, therefore Beijing exist housing price speculating froth, and has a further inflation tendency. Third, Beijing real estate market's froth index is:0.648, the froth is slight. The American loan crisis's froth is 0.9102, although Beijing's froth has certain disparity from the American loan crisis, but it's already surpassed the international warning line 0.4.The possible innovation of this article is in the following several aspects, first, this article unified the positive feedback effect and a partial equilibrium construct a pricing model, and based on this we obtained the excess growth rate of house price, this rate is rejected the resident average income per person,the one year loan rate and the inflation index, this rate is mainly caused by speculator's expectation. Second, this article using the average income per person,the excess growth rate of house price, the one year loan rate,constructs a new model, inspected the excess growth rate of house price and its first-order lag value's influence to the house price, then through their's coefficient to judg the speculative demand's(demand which causes by speculator's resale increment expectation) effect on the housing price,and obtains the judgment of whether the house price have speculating froth. Third, we using the excess growth rate of house price constructs a house price froth index, and has contrasted the American loan crisis's froth with Beijing present froth, has provided a reference for Beijing housing price froth. Fourth, this article unified China and Germany's real estate policy measures, proposes the corrective measure according to the return result.