Study On The Measure Of Real Estate Bubble In Hefei

As a pillar industry of the national economy,the healthy development of the real estate industry is closely related to the macro economy,and directly related to the healthy and development of the economy.Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,The real estate market in China has begun to develop rapidly.At the same time,there are problems such as high house prices,blind speculation and so on,which has aroused scholars'concern about China's real estate bubble.In recent years,the real estate market of hefei develop rapidly.,became the "leader" of the city with high price rising,irrational behaviors such as "diurnal CD-ROM" appear frequently in the market,which also led to the controversy of the real estate bubble in Hefei city.This article focuses on whether there is a bubble in the high housing prices in Hefei at this stage.If there is,how big is the bubble?The two problems are discussed,and the real estate bubble in Hefei is empirically studied by using the index method and model method.Meanwhile,the same method is used in the reference department to analyze and compare the same methods in the whole country,in order to objectively understand the real estate situation in Hefei and provide some reference for other cities.First,this paper reviews the definition of "real estate bubble" at home and abroad,summarizes the concept of real estate bubble widely recognized by Chinese scholars,and defines the real estate bubble as the divergence between real estate price and basic value caused by speculation.On this basis,this paper further expounds the formation mechanism,the disillusionment mechanism and the harm caused by the real estate bubble.Secondly,this paper analyzes and compares several main measurement methods of real estate bubbles from the aspects of data accessibility,reliability and difficulty,and selects index method and partial equilibrium model to make an empirical study on the real estate market in Hefei.Thirdly,according to the principle of selecting the corresponding index as well as the research object,this paper selects the following five indicators:ratio of house price to income,real estate development investment/total fixed asset investment,ratio of house price growth rate to cpi growth rate,residential construction area/the completion of the residential area,residential sales area/the completion of the residential area,A preliminary determination of the existence and degree of the housing bubble in the residential real estate market in Hefei is made based on the comprehensive index method and the index system method,and it is compared with the national average level.The research shows that there is a bubble in the real estate market on the whole of Hefei,and the bubble is more serious in recent years(2014-2016).Then,based on previous studies,we adjusted the parameter estimation of partial equilibrium model,and used this method to measure the specific bubble degree of Hefei and the national real estate market bubble.The results also show that there is a bubble in the residential real estate market on the whole in Hefei,and the bubble is more serious for 2014-2016.Finally,by comparing and analyzing the results of the two methods,the paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The residential real estate market in China has developed healthier in general,with a low bubble degree and fluctuating in a certain range.The real estate market in Hefei has already froth and intensified after 2014,and there is a further deterioration trend.(2)A comparison of several indicators suggest that the ratio of house price to income can reflect the overall situation of the real estate bubble;compared with comprehensive index method,the index system is more sensitive to the foam bubble;the index method can be used to determine the existence and degree of foam for its simplicity and the accuracy judge of the overall trend;Since the Partial equilibrium model is accurate and has theoretical support,it is also suitable for measuring the real estate bubble.After drawing the conclusion,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions based on the current situation of the real estate market in Hefei,...