Methods Research On Telecom Services Tariff Dynamic Preview

In recent years, with the standardized management of the telecom market and the diversified development of the user market, the competition between telecom operators become fierce increasingly. In order to seize market opportunities, attract more new customers and increase business revenue, telecom operators will introduce new service packages to seize market opportunities. To reduce the risk of business operations, Telecom enterprises hope to preview new package for predicting market information of it with some precise analysis which is able to simulate real market conditions, accordingly guiding managers to make scientific decision-making to reduce operational risk and increase economic efficiency.This thesis introduced the related theories of telecom service tariff packages firstly, and then made a systematic exposition of the concept of telecom service package and pricing strategies, especially the basic theory of the design and evaluation of the telecom service packages. Combined to numerous domestic and international literatures and the actual state of telecom operation, this thesis made a comprehensive introduce to the basic theory of dynamic preview to telecom service tariff, and defines the static preview and dynamic preview, and proposed the basic processes of dynamic preview to telecom service tariff.Based on the study above, this thesis researched the core of the dynamic preview to telecom service tariff, which is the calculation methods of the number of customers which will choose the new service packages, and proposed that the customers using new packages come mainly from the new customers (which use this new network service packages the first time) and the transfer customers (which have ever chosen the original network service packages). Combined to the actual consumption data of telecom customers, this thesis researched the methods to calculate the numbers of two parts of clients. For the new customers, the thesis established respectively the prediction model using Linear Regression method based time series and Exponential Smoothing method. With the result of forecasts, the feasibility, advantages and disadvantages of two methods were discussed. For the transfer customers, this thesis used data mining with the decision tree algorithm to find the rules of customer change service packages, and studied the user groups which will change service packages possibly.Finally, the thesis summarized the related methods of dynamic preview for telecom service tariff and discussed further study of the dynamic preview.