The Research Of CAFTA Agricultural Trade Problems Based On The Gravity Model

Since the late 20th century,80, China and ASEAN economic and trade exchanges between countries is growing.As of the end of 2009, China and theASEAN FreeTrade Area of the total merchandise trade was 213.01 billion U.S. dollars, is 18 times more than in 1993, of which 9.737 billion U.S. dollars of agricultural products trade volume is more than 4 times in 1993, the proportion of agricultural trade from the view2009, total merchandise trade of agricultural trade, compared to just 4.6% in 1993, the figure was nearly 20%.The above data shows that China-ASEAN Free Trade Area of agricultural trade has great potential.China's government and enterprises attach great importance to China-ASEAN Free Trade Area of the agricultural trade issue, but Chin a -ASEAN Free Trade Area of the factors that agricultural trade exactly what and how to control these factors to be more beneficial to both the development of agricult- ural trade is aquestion worth exploring, which is the focus of this study: the use of gravity model analysis of the China-ASEAN agricultural products.Besides the introduction, this paper introduces the basic principles of gravity models and gravity models based on various studies, and literature were evaluated. Followed by China-ASEAN Free Trade Area of agricultural trade situation and the competitive advantage analysis, detailed description of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone Development of agricultural products, from the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and trade competitiveness (TC) both China and ASEANcountries to analyze the situation of agricultural trade.Again, the literature review and the status quo based on the analysis, first used on the 1992-2009 gravity model of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the empirical analysis of agricultural trade and found that both economies of scale, the absolute difference between the per capita GDP,absolute distance, the exchange rate change rate, regional trade agreements and trade complementarity index of agricultural trade for both sides have significant effects, but both economies of scale, the absolute difference between GDP per capita, absolute distance, exchange rate changes and trade complementarity indices for the Chineseagricultural exports with the ASEAN countries have a significant role in traffic.Second, in 2009 China-ASEAN Free Trade Area to predict the potential for agricultural trade, the results show that China and most ASEAN countries have established relatively strong trade links, trade potential, a small number of developing countries and China agricultural trade to be strengthened.Finally, we make a summary on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis. And make some specific policy proposals.