Research On The Analysis Of Interrelationship Between Infrastructure Investment And Economic Growth With Two Kinds Of Models

The driving forces of Chinese economic growth include consumption, investment and net export. Among them, consumption is poorer; moreover, it won't become stronger owing to Chinese traditional culture. At the same time, China began join in the global economic integration, but Chinese net export is expected to be resumed hardly as before by trade protectionism after economic crisis. As the result, investment will support Chinese economic growth with important promotion which is stable and sustained for a period of time. Notice that, in Chinese 4 trillions'scheme, the part of at least 50% will be invested to infrastructure. That means the effectiveness of investment to promotion is an important approach to economic resurgence. The article discussed the function of infrastructure from past to future to probe a way of potentiating. By the method of time series analysis and grey control system, the results represent the benefit of investment and the relationships among factors belong to investment as references for policy.First, there is an introduction of background and sense, then, the article shows pre-knowledge of conceptions and methods used below. The data and variable are described the system generally as well as intuitively.The article gains a time series model precipitating the dynamic relationship well in which per investment growth rate in the year before last will generate 14.9 percent of economic growth rate. What's more, investment multiplier is 6.71. That means the driving force of investment in China is powerful. The correlation coefficient is 0.6184, without other elements, economic growth rate will assist investment growth rate increasing to 5.5 times in turn as a virtuous circle. For forecasting, Chinese economic growth will be about 11% in 2011. Therefore, in the twelfth 5-year plans, prospect is bright. The interval between forecast and aim can be used to carry out fiscal policy and monetary policy.In the other part, the article analyses the economic setup in China by grey control system. Firstly, the strengths'sequence is Mining>supply of water, gas, electric power>transportation and postal service>manufacture>ESCH>R&W and C&A>public service>agriculture>finance>building trade. Thus, investment, especially on supply of water, gas, electric power, transportation and postal service and ESCH, can not only improve Chinese economic structure, but also feed talents and technology. Secondly, the critical proportion of investment to reproduction is 1.2726. So, with the growth rate, keeping an appropriate scale and structure is essential in the future. If making certain that the growth rate of infrastructure investment stay at 1.273 times of the growth rate of economic growth, Chinese economic system will be sustainable and virtuous avoiding needless duplication.Afterward, on the basis of the result gained above, the article discuses the macro-control in chapter 6, and makes a summary at last.