Research On The Reasonable Scale Of Road Development In Shandong Province

In recent years, the highway traffic gets the favor of all the society by its unique advantage. As it drives the economy of along areas, Chinese government increased the investment in construction of highway in order to promote the development of social economy during the period of the financial crisis. However, as highway construction needs substantial investment, blind investment will cause the premature occupation of a lot of construction funds, thus other social construction will be affected. But if the highway is developed at a low speed, it cannot improve the economy of its along areas. Therefore, it has great significance to determine the right scale of highway network development.The paper starts from the concept, mileage index and density index of highway network's scale, and analyzes the factors that impact on the development of highway network's scale; Then a conclusion was made to analyze the highway network's development regulation of Shandong province according to the highway network history of the USA, England and France. Finally, the territory resource model was used to calibration analysis of Shandong province, and the growth curve models of highway mileage were established to fit the highway development of Shandong province. Results demonstrates that the highway network mileage of Shandong province develops at a high speed during the year of 1990 and 2025, it lasts for 35 years and will saturate in 2030; The freeway mileage develops fast from 2002 to 2023, it lasts for 21 years and will saturate in 2043.